aes19 International Evaluation Conference

Nerida Rixon (The University of Melbourne)

This presentation discusses research into the necessary components of a theory of change for system level interventions. This research focuses on theories of change at the 'whole of government response' or 'package' level (i.e. programs or initiatives managed by multiple agencies put together, funded and announced as a package), or at the 'system' level (e.g. the mental health system). It is relevant to any institution designing systems level responses.

A conceptual framework will be proposed outlining the necessary components of a theory of change and more broadly good theory. This will enable governments to effectively plan, monitor and evaluate outcomes. Through translating the framework to an analysis grid, a formula is provided to craft and analyse theories of change. Analysis of at least one case study using this analysis grid will be presented.

This presentation draws on research into what makes both good theory and a good program level theory of change, critiquing and translating this research, where appropriate, to the package or system level.

A central assumption in my work is that governments develop theories of change quickly. This research would provide evaluation practitioners, government program managers and policy officers with the 'must haves' for this theory. As organisations transition to outcomes based planning and design, and grapple with complexity a strong system level theory of change is essential.